Pre and Post-Monoclonal Infusion Neutralizing Activity in a Subgroup of Patients Treated in the Presence of two SARS-CoV-2 Dominant Variant of Concern (VOCs) and an Ongoing Vaccination. Overall Clinical Efficacy of Two Monoclonal Antibodies Association in Umbria.

Background and Objective: In patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 and at high risk of progression, casirivimab/imdevimab and bamlanivimab/etesivimab were utilized in Umbria from late April to November 2021. This period was characterized by an initial prevalence of alpha (B1.1.1.7) and its progressive substitution with the delta variant (B1.617.2). Many delta infections occurred in patients already recently vaccinated.Our study aimed to observe the clinical outcome of patients treated with mAbs associations in a subgroup in which viral isolation was obtained, the pre and post-infusion neutralizing antibody activity against their viral isolate. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, the clinical outcome before and 30 days after infusion, the baseline neutralizing activity of sera against their viral isolate, and the titers of neutralizing antibodies (NAbTs) one-hour post-infusion relative to the type of mAbs associations were evaluated. Results: Better efficacy of the mAbs combinations relative to monotherapy regarding global hospitalization (p = 0.021) and 30 days symptoms (p<0.001) were seen. Infections after vaccination mostly occurred in the absence of neutralizing antibody titers (NAbT). SARS-CoV-2 delta variants were isolated within 2-4 months from vaccinations without NAbTs, or in the presence of high specific neutralizing activity after 5-6 months. NAbTs were higher after casirivimab/imdevimab infusion (p=0.001). Conclusions: Alpha infections occurred prevalently in unvaccinated patients or after 5-6 months, while delta infections prevailed in vaccinated ones. A poor neutralizing activity in most of these patients was seen. A higher NAbT after infusion of casirivimab/imdevimab was observed.

Effect of High-Titer Convalescent Plasma on Progression to Severe Respiratory Failure or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Convalescent plasma (CP) has been generally unsuccessful in preventing worsening of respiratory failure or death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of CP plus standard therapy (ST) vs ST alone in preventing worsening respiratory failure or death in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, open-label, randomized clinical trial enrolled (1:1 ratio) hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia to receive CP plus ST or ST alone between July 15 and December 8, 2020, at 27 clinical sites in Italy. Hospitalized adults with COVID-19 pneumonia and a partial pressure of oxygen-to-fraction of inspired oxygen (Pao2/Fio2) ratio between 350 and 200 mm Hg were eligible. Interventions: Patients in the experimental group received intravenous high-titer CP (≥1:160, by microneutralization test) plus ST. The volume of infused CP was 200 mL given from 1 to a maximum of 3 infusions. Patients in the control group received ST, represented by remdesivir, glucocorticoids, and low-molecular weight heparin, according to the Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco recommendations. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of worsening respiratory failure (Pao2/Fio2 ratio <150 mm Hg) or death within 30 days from randomization. Results: Of the 487 randomized patients (241 to CP plus ST; 246 to ST alone), 312 (64.1%) were men; the median (IQR) age was 64 (54.0-74.0) years. The modified intention-to-treat population included 473 patients. The primary end point occurred in 59 of 231 patients (25.5%) treated with CP and ST and in 67 of 239 patients (28.0%) who received ST (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.59-1.33; P = .54). Adverse events occurred more frequently in the CP group (12 of 241 [5.0%]) compared with the control group (4 of 246 [1.6%]; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia, high-titer anti-SARS-CoV-2 CP did not reduce the progression to severe respiratory failure or death within 30 days. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04716556.

Early Treatment with Bamlanivimab Alone does not Prevent COVID-19 Hospitalization and Its Post-Acute Sequelae. A Real Experience in Umbria, Italy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The use of monoclonal antibodies to the SARS-Cov-2 spike protein for early treatment of COVID-19 disease is being evaluated, with only phase 2 studies available to date. The emergency authorization of bamlanivimab monotherapy was obtained in November 2020 by the FDA and in March 2021 by Italian agency AIFA. Its use was then revoked in April 2021 by both. This study reports the results of bamlanivimab utilization in monotherapy in Umbria (Italian region) to verify whether, in a population with multiple risk factors, comparable results to the phase 2 BLAZE1 trial had been obtained. METHODS: Between March and April 2021, a retrospective observational study was performed on patients treated with bamlanivimab. Demographic and clinical characteristics before and after infusion were evaluated. Moreover, a telephone interview was conducted about 30 days after the infusion to evaluate the overall course. RESULTS: All patients had an early infection (mean 4±1.73 days), almost all by alpha variant (97%). No adverse events to treatment were observed. Altogether within 30 days, the hospitalization rate was 20%, 15% for COVID-19 related pathologies, versus 4% at 11 days in the BLAZE1 phase 2 study. In addition, worsening of some symptoms observed at baseline such as asthenia (77 vs. 51.3%), shortness of breath (38 vs. 23%) was registered, as well as the onset of non-restorative sleep (41%). CONCLUSION: The clinical outcome after bamlanivimab monotherapy was far below the expectation despite the patients had been infected by a theoretically sensitive viral variant.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects. METHODS: The model satisfactory reproduces the data of the Italian survey showing a relevant predictive power and relegating in a secondary position models which do not include, in the simulation, the presence of asymptomatic groups. The corrections due to the serological test sensitivity (in particular those ones depending on the symptoms onset) are crucial for a realistic analysis of the unreported (and asymptomatic) components. RESULTS: The relevant presence of an unreported component during the second pandemic wave in Italy is confirmed and the ratio of reported to unreported cases is predicted to be roughly 1:4 in the last months of year 2020. A method to correct the serological data on the basis of the antibody sensitivity is suggested and systematically applied. The asymptomatic component is also studied in some detail and its amount quantified. A model analyses of the vaccination scenarios is performed confirming the relevance of a massive campaign (at least 80000 immunized per day) during the first six months of the year 2021, to obtain important immunization effects within August/September 2021.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study.

PURPOSE: Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley-McNeil test. RESULTS: The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68-0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley-McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

A study of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in Italy: from early days to secondary effects after social distancing.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 101,739 confirmed cases, in Italy, as of March 30th, 2020. While the analogous event in China appears to be under control at the moment, the outbreaks in western countries are still at an early stage of development. Italy, at present, is playing a major role in understanding the transmission dynamics of these new infections and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures in a western social context. METHODS: We combined a quarantined model with early-stage development data in Italy (during the period February 20th-March 30th) to predict longer-term progression (from March 30th, till June 25th, 2020 in a long-term view) with different control measures. Due to significant variations in the control strategies, which have been changing over time, and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies leading to faster confirmation of the SARS-CoV-2 infections, we made use of time-dependent contact and diagnosis rates to estimate when the effective daily reproduction ratio can fall below 1. Within the same framework, we analyze the possible secondary infection event after relaxing the isolation measures. OUTCOMES AND INTERPRETATION: We study two simplified scenarios compatible with the observation data and the effects of two stringent measures on the evolution of the epidemic. On one side, the contact rate must be kept as low as possible, but it is also clear that, in a modern developed country, it cannot fall under certain minimum levels and for a long time. The complementary parameter tuned is the transition rate of the symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined class, a parameter δI I connected with the time tI = 1/δI  needed to perform diagnostic tests. Within the conditions of the outbreak in Italy, this time must fall under 12-8 h in order to make the reproduction number less than 1 to minimize the case numbers. Moreover, we show how the same parameter plays an even more important role in mitigating the effects of a possible secondary infection event.

Predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Background: From January 2020, Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread all over the world. An early assessment of illness severity is important for the stratification of patients. We analysed the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission (ICU) in patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.Methods: Data of 71 patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted from 1 March to 20 April 2020, to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases of Perugia Hospital, Italy, were retrospectively reviewed. NEWS2 at hospital admission, demographic, comorbidity and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to establish the correlation between each variable and ICU admission.Results: Among 68 patients included in the analysis, 27 were admitted to ICU. NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor of ICU admission as shown by an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.90 (standard error 0.04; 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, NEWS2 was significantly related to ICU admission using thresholds of 5 and 7. No other clinical variables included in the model were significantly correlated with ICU admission.A NEWS2 threshold of 5 had higher sensitivity than a threshold of 7 (89% and 63%). Higher specificity, positive likelihood ratio and positive predictive value were found using a threshold of 7 than a threshold of 5.Conclusions: NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor for ICU admission. Patients with severe COVID-19 were correctly and rapidly stratified.